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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."