🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.